Juliet Oladele, Reporting
LAGOS — Fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has exposed a stark disconnect between crude oil allocations and actual deliveries to domestic refineries, with less than half of promised volumes changing hands during the first quarter of 2026.
According to the Commission’s latest report on the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) — a mechanism enshrined in the Petroleum Industry Act — some 61.9 million barrels were earmarked for local refiners between January and March. Oil producers, in turn, offered a more generous 68.7 million barrels.
Yet only 28.5 million barrels were physically delivered, yielding a conversion rate of just 36 to 46 per cent by the quarter’s close.
Month-by-month figures reveal a striking pattern of underdelivery. In January, the NUPRC directed that 22.6 million barrels be set aside for domestic refining. Producers responded by offering 25.3 million — an 11.9 per cent surplus equivalent to an extra 2.7 million barrels. Actual deliveries, however, slumped to a paltry 9.2 million.
February saw a similar story. The Commission assigned 20.5 million barrels under the DCSO, but producers slightly undershot, offering 19.8 million (some 700,000 barrels short of target). Deliveries fell even further, to 9.1 million barrels.
March brought a modest rebound in deliveries, climbing to 10.1 million barrels. Allocations for the month stood at 18.8 million, while producers put forward 23.6 million — a whopping 25.5 per cent above the requirement.
The persistent gap between volumes offered and volumes delivered has been pinned largely on pricing disputes between producers and domestic refiners. The NUPRC noted that all transactions operate on a “willing buyer, willing seller” model, a framework that continues to stymie actual transfers.
Despite the turbulence, the Commission reaffirmed its commitment to the government’s overarching goal of energy self-sufficiency. Drawing on the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, it pledged to refine the DCSO framework — boosting transparency, improving efficiency, and ensuring that domestic refineries ultimately receive the crude volumes they have been promised.
For now, however, the numbers suggest a market where willingness to sell and willingness to buy remain stubbornly apart.
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