By US President Donald Trump has issued a fresh threat to target Nigeria if the government “continues to allow the killing of Christians”.
In a video posted on Truth Social, he vowed to “do things to Nigeria that Nigeria is not going to be happy about” and to “go into that now-disgraced country guns blazing”. However, the White House’s interest in this subject did not emerge suddenly.
For months, campaigners and politicians in Washington have alleged that Islamist militants are systematically targeting Christians in Nigeria.
Yet, BBC findings reveal that some of the data used to support this claim are difficult to verify.
In September, US television host and comedian Bill Maher described the situation as a “genocide”, claiming that Boko Haram had “killed over 100,000 since 2009 and burned 18,000 churches”.
Similar figures have circulated widely on social media.
The Nigerian government has dismissed these assertions as “a gross misrepresentation of reality”.
While acknowledging ongoing violence, officials emphasised that “terrorists attack all who reject their murderous ideology — Muslims, Christians, and those of no faith alike.”
Other groups monitoring political violence in Nigeria argue that the number of Christians killed is significantly lower, noting that most victims of jihadist groups are Muslims.
Security analyst Christian Ani said that although Christians have been targeted as part of a broader terror campaign, claims that they are deliberately singled out cannot be substantiated.
Nigeria faces multiple security crises — not only jihadist violence — driven by diverse causes that should not be conflated.
The country’s estimated 220 million people are roughly evenly split between Muslims and Christians, with Muslims forming the majority in the north, where most attacks occur.
What Are US Politicians Saying?
Texas Senator Ted Cruz has long campaigned on this issue. On 7 October, citing figures similar to Maher’s, he wrote on X that “since 2009, over 50,000 Christians in Nigeria have been massacred, and over 18,000 churches and 2,000 Christian schools have been destroyed”.
In an email to the BBC, Cruz’s office clarified that he was referring to “persecution”, not “genocide”.
Cruz accused Nigerian officials of “ignoring and even facilitating the mass murder of Christians by Islamist jihadists”. Trump echoed these sentiments, describing Nigeria as a “disgraced country” that “continues to allow the killing of Christians”.
The Nigerian government denies this, insisting that it is doing its best to combat jihadists. Some officials say they would welcome US assistance, provided it is not unilateral.
Despite its efforts, the government has struggled to contain violent groups and criminal networks — with new reports of attacks and abductions emerging almost weekly.
Boko Haram, infamous for the 2014 Chibok schoolgirl kidnappings, has been active since 2009, primarily in the north-east. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) also operates in the region.
Where Do the Numbers Come From?
Senator Cruz cited a 2023 report by the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (InterSociety), a Nigerian NGO monitoring human rights abuses. His office also shared several articles that all trace back to InterSociety.
Maher did not respond to BBC requests for his data sources, though his figures appear to align with InterSociety’s.
InterSociety’s 2025 report claims that jihadist groups have killed over 100,000 Christians since 2009, alongside 60,000 “moderate Muslims”.
However, the organisation does not publish a detailed list of sources, making verification difficult.
When questioned, InterSociety said reproducing all reports dating back to 2010 was “almost impossible”, and that it compiles new findings by adding updated “summary statistics”.
The cited data sources do not, however, substantiate the reported figures.
What About the Deaths in 2025?
InterSociety claims that between January and August 2025, just over 7,000 Christians were killed — a figure widely shared on social media, including by Republican Congressman Riley M. Moore.
The NGO cites 70 media reports as evidence, yet roughly half of these do not specify the religious identity of victims.
For instance, an Al Jazeera report on a Boko Haram attack in Borno State mentioned 40 abducted farmers but did not identify them as Christians — contrary to InterSociety’s claim.
InterSociety told the BBC that it analyses local demographics and “Christian media reports” to determine victims’ backgrounds, though it did not specify how.
When the BBC aggregated the deaths reported in those 70 articles, the total was around 3,000 — less than half of InterSociety’s figure — with some incidents seemingly double-counted.
InterSociety said it also includes estimated deaths in captivity and eyewitness accounts not publicly disclosed.
Who Is Behind the Killings?
InterSociety attributes violence to jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and Fulani herders. The Fulani are a largely Muslim ethnic group found across West Africa.
Their inclusion as “jihadists” is contentious. Many researchers argue that clashes involving Fulani herders are often over land and water access, not religion.
Security analyst Christian Ani said: “To call them jihadists is a stretch. These are rogue or criminal elements.”
Confidence McHarry of SBM Intelligence noted that while some attacks appear ethnically driven, the targeting of worship centres gives them a perceived religious dimension.
InterSociety also lists “bandits” — mostly ethnic Fulani in north-western Nigeria — who engage in kidnapping and have killed both Muslims and Christians.
What Do Other Research Groups Say?
InterSociety’s figures far exceed those from other reputable sources.
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which tracks violence in West Africa, estimates that since 2009, about 53,000 civilians — both Muslims and Christians — have died in politically motivated violence.
From 2020 to September 2025, ACLED recorded around 21,000 civilian deaths, with 384 incidents specifically targeting Christians, resulting in 317 deaths — a small fraction of the total.
ACLED’s methodology and sources are transparent and verifiable, unlike InterSociety’s.
What About Trump’s Figures?
In a recent Truth Social post, Trump cited 3,100 Christian deaths, based on data from Open Doors, a global Christian charity that documents persecution.
Open Doors reported 3,100 Christian and 2,320 Muslim deaths between October 2023 and October 2024.
It attributes nearly a third of Christian deaths to “Fulani terror groups”.
Senior researcher Frans Veerman said: “Christians are still targeted, but increasingly some Muslims are also being attacked by Fulani militants.”
Analysts confirm that Muslim communities in northern Nigeria have also suffered violent assaults.
Mr McHarry explained: “The reason these attacks on Muslims aren’t seen as religiously motivated is because the perpetrators are themselves Muslims.”
Conclusion
While Christians in Nigeria have undeniably suffered from terrorism and insecurity, claims of an organised genocide or systematic targeting are not supported by verifiable evidence.
Violence across the country affects people of all faiths — rooted as much in ethnic, political, and economic tensions as in religious differences.
BBC Global Disinformation Unit, Lagos
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